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February 2015 Kontos Kommentary

Current Used Vehicle Market Conditions and Outlook


Average wholesale used vehicle prices fell modestly in February compared to January, but remain up on a year-over-year basis, primarily due to a “richer mix” that includes a higher proportion and quantity of off-rental program/factory units.


According to ADESA Analytical Services’ monthly analysis of Wholesale Used Vehicle Prices by Vehicle Model Class1, wholesale used vehicle prices in February averaged $10,176 – down 0.3% compared to January but up 3.4% relative to February 2014.  As in January, much of the positive year-over-year price variance is driven by higher off-rental program/factory vehicle sales. (Program vehicles are typically current-model-year or one-year-old models that sell for higher average prices than other auction sales types.)  Fullsize Pickups continued to show pricing strength, while crossover vehicles saw year-over-year declines.
Prices for used vehicles remarketed by manufacturers were up 4.4% month-over-month but down 8.8% year-over-year.  Prices for fleet/lease consignors were down 1.0% sequentially but up 0.7% annually.  Dealer consignors registered a 1.0% decrease versus January but a 3.5% increase relative to February 2014.
Retail used vehicle sales for February are unavailable from CNW Research.  CPO sales were again strong, rising 10.3% year-over-year, according to figures from Autodata.

1 The analysis is based on over six million annual sales transactions from over 150 of the largest U.S. wholesale auto auctions, including those of ADESA as well as other auction companies. ADESA Analytical Services segregates these transactions to study trends by vehicle model class.

The views and analysis provided herein relate to the vehicle remarketing industry as a whole and may not relate directly to KAR Auction Services, Inc. The views and analysis are not the views of KAR Auction Services, its management or its subsidiaries; and their accuracy is not warranted. The statements contained in this report and statements that the company may make orally in connection with this report that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Words such as “should,” “may,” “will,” “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “bode”, “promises”, “likely to” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results projected, expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include those matters disclosed in the company’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

Wholesale Price Data by Model Class Segment - February 2015
Wholesale Price Data by Model Class Segment - Full History 2011 - 022015
ADESA Analytical Services Selected Model Class Segments
Wholesale Price Data by Model Class Segment - Full History 2000 - June 2012