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August 2017 Kontos Kommentary

Current Used Vehicle Market Conditions and Outlook


Summary

Average wholesale prices in August were once again up largely on the strength of truck prices, although another factor could be early impacts from Hurricane Harvey, which appeared to drive prices up at the end of the month, particularly in Texas. (Please see Kontos Kommentary: Hurricane Harvey Special Edition for additional information.)


Details

According to ADESA Analytical Services’ monthly analysis of Wholesale Used Vehicle Prices by Vehicle Model Class, wholesale used vehicle prices in August averaged $10,947 – up 0.6% compared to July and up 1.9% relative to August 2016. Luxury cars had a stand-out month, with significant average price increases on both a monthly and annual basis.

Price softening was less evident than in previous months when holding constant for sale type, model-year age, mileage, and model class segment. In fact, midsize car prices were up on a year-basis as seen in the following table:

 

 

Last month, we noted that midsize SUV/CUV prices were reversing their previous trend and softening more than midsize car prices, and this month the two bellwether segments moved in opposite directions. This pattern may change in the aftermath of Harvey, as truck demand in Texas should ramp up.

Average wholesale prices for used vehicles remarketed by manufacturers were up 4.6% month-over-month and up 6.5% year-over-year. Prices for fleet/lease consignors were up 1.4% sequentially and up 2.3% annually. Average prices for dealer consignors were down 1.2% versus July and up 3.0% relative to August 2016.

August CPO sales were down 1.4% year-over-year according to figures from Autodata, but remain up 0.3% on a year-to-date basis.

 

1 The analysis is based on over six million annual sales transactions from over 150 of the largest U.S. wholesale auto auctions, including those of ADESA as well as other auction companies. ADESA Analytical Services segregates these transactions to study trends by vehicle model class.

The views and analysis provided herein relate to the vehicle remarketing industry as a whole and may not relate directly to KAR Auction Services, Inc. The views and analysis are not the views of KAR Auction Services, its management or its subsidiaries; and their accuracy is not warranted. The statements contained in this report and statements that the company may make orally in connection with this report that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Words such as “should,” “may,” “will,” “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “bode”, “promises”, “likely to” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results projected, expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include those matters disclosed in the company’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

Wholesale Price Data by Model Class Segment - August 2017
Wholesale Price Data by Model Class Segment History 2015-082017
Wholesale Price Data by Model Class Segment - Full History 2011 - 012016
ADESA Analytical Services Selected Model Class Segments
Wholesale Price Data by Model Class Segment - Full History 2000 - June 2012

Kontos Kommentary - August 2017